New York Bodyboarding » SURF REPORT

Hurricane Noel to Deliver High Surf to East Coast!

NYBB — Fri, 02 Nov 2007 06:14:33 +0000

Best NY swell since Thanksgiving ‘06?
Recently upgraded Hurricane Noel will take a very favorable track for our area over the next 48 hours, delivering solid surf in the 8-10′ range, starting with some Easterly windswell and SE groundswell filling in behind it. Strong NE winds (25-40kt) will prevail and keep conditions challenging but clean throughout the day, with small leftovers on Sunday and NW winds.

NYBB Weather Center Report and Forecasting

Surf Update – 99L to Threaten East Coast

NYBB — Tue, 04 Sep 2007 19:57:13 +0000

East Coast U.S. at risk from new tropical disturbance 99L
“An area of disturbed weather formed off the north coast of Florida yesterday, and this disturbance has been designated 99L by NHC. Strong upper level winds from the west are creating about 20 knots of wind shear over 99L, and satellite loops show that these winds are keeping all of 99L’s heavy thunderstorm activity pushed over to the southeast quadrant of the storm. This shear is forecast to remain between 15 and 25 knots over the next five days by the GFS model, so any development of 99L should be slow. Despite the relatively high shear, the computer models are mostly calling for 99L to develop. Steering currents are weak in the region, and the models agree that 99L is likely to make a clockwise loop over the next three days, then potentially threaten (take your pick):

UKMET: North Carolina on Saturday
NOGAPS: Florida on Friday
HWRF: New York on Saturday
ECMWF: South Carolina on Friday
Canadian: North Carolina on Saturday

The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this system at 4pm EDT Wednesday.”

Courtesy of the Jeff Master’s Show
NYBB Weather Center Report and Forecasting

Surf in the Forecast?

NYBB — Sun, 02 Sep 2007 19:50:53 +0000

September is finally here and there’s still no sign of surf. While it may seem like there’s no relief in sight and it will never get good again, we all know someting has to give and its just a matter of time. The tropics should become more active and before you know it, we’ll even be talking nor’easters again. For now, we continue to watch and pray that the surf comes up for the NYBB Pro, this September 5-9th. There’s not much to speak about for the upcoming week, but there is a chance that a homegrown storm could develop off the SE coast this week – check out this marine surface pressure model that has it meandering off the east coast for the next 7 days.

“Several computer models develop a tropical depression off the South Carolina coast by Wednesday or Thursday, along an old frontal boundary. An area of disturbed weather has already formed here, and will bear watching over the next few days. You can track this using long range radar out of Jacksonville, Florida.

The NCEP says:
“MEANWHILE…A CURRENTLY NON-TROPICAL BUT HIGHLY CONVECTIVE LOW IS
NOW EVIDENT OFF THE SE US COAST. MODELS ARE QUITE DIVERSE WITH
THE FUTURE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. IT IS NOT MOVING MUCH
CURRENTLY AND SOME GUIDANCE FOLLOWS A SLOW TREND. HPC PROGS ALLOW
THIS LOW TO SLIP SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION OVER THE COMING WEEK
AS PER COORDINATION WITH NHC/TPC.”
Elsewhere in the tropics, tropical ave 98L is worth keeping an eye on, and could develop into a depression and begin a NW track ovder the next few days.

98L

“A tropical wave (98L) in the mid-Atlantic, halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, has the potential to develop into a tropical depression later this week. However, conditions are not as favorable today as they appeared yesterday, and there is a higher likelihood that wind shear and dry air will prevent this disturbance from developing. The system has a closed circulation and a small area of heavy thunderstorm activity on the west side of the center. Wind shear from strong upper-level winds from the east-southeast are preventing thunderstorm activity from building on the east side of the storm. The SHIPS model was forecasting a low shear environment would set up over the path of 98L by Tuesday, but now has reversed itself, calling for shear to remain 15-25 knots for the next five days. If the shear does remain that high, formation of a tropical depression is unlikely. However, 98L has a vigorous circulation, and it may be able to outlast the hostile wind shear until it finds a more favorable environment. Furthermore, other global models, such as the NOGAPS, are not forecasting such hostile wind shear conditions. I believe the SHIPS model shear forecast looks a little fishy, and that the NOGAPS model has the right idea. I’m expecting 98L to be a tropical depression later this week, perhaps as early as Wednesday.

98L moved southwestward for a period last night, but now has resumed its westward motion and slowed down to 10 mph. A strong trough of low pressure will pass north of 98L Tuesday and Wednesday, which could impart a more northwesterly motion to the storm. The GFDL and HWRF models have 98L moving to a position about 800 miles east of Puerto Rico by Thursday. A ridge of high pressure should build in after the trough passes, forcing 98L on a more westward track towards Puerto Rico. This is highly speculative, as both the HWRF and GFDL develop 98L into a 50 mph tropical storm by mid-week, and this is not likely to occur. I expect a weaker 98L may not “feel” the presence of the trough so strongly, and it may not get pulled as far north as the GFDL and HWRF are forecasting. In this case, 98L would stay farther south and move through the Lesser Antilles south of Puerto Rico late this week. None of the other computer models develop 98L.”

More Surf on Tap…

NYBB — Tue, 21 Aug 2007 07:59:14 +0000

We’ve got a new ESE swell on tap for the next few days, but winds will be tricky. Look for strong ENE winds on Tuesday, and a possible shift to the north on Wednesday, although they may just stay east and never cooperate, so keep an eye on it. The swell lingers through the week but winds come onshore weds/thurs. The good news is September is a little over a week away…

NEW NYBB BUOY MAP

OLD NYBB WEATHER CENTER

LAUNCHING! -> NYBB Movie Theatre & NEW Buoy Map!

NYBB — Mon, 20 Aug 2007 08:08:48 +0000

NYBODYBOARDING VIDEOS
3 Oldie but goodies now playing here:
3 Vids Re-released!!!

NYBB ‘REAL-TIME’ BUOY MAP

NYBB Buoy Map Launch!!!

Everthing is a work in progress with daily updates so be sure to stay dialed in!!!

Southern Hemi…

NYBB — Sat, 18 Aug 2007 05:58:43 +0000

SOUTHERN HEMI Whether you buy into the Southern Hemi ‘phenomenon’ or not, a 2-3 foot groundswell with 16 – 17 second intervals has begun registering on the HOTEL buoy as of 11pm this evening. Powerful storms that stall off the coast of Africa for extended periods of time are capable of sending long period groundswell to our shores via angular spreading, and with a little luck, we’ll have some fun punchy surf in the waist+ range by morning. But don’t take my word for it, get up off mattress reef and go have a look for yourself.

Tropical Storm DEAN

NYBB — Tue, 14 Aug 2007 02:32:12 +0000

Tropical Storm Dean appears to be headed for the gulf, but you never know, he may change his mind .
In the meantime, a healthy storm off the coast of Africa last week might have had enough musturd to deliver some small southern hemi lines by the weekend, somewhere in the 1-3′ range @ 14-17 second intervals, which could translate to some fun punchy little waves if we’re lucky, plus small windswell cleanup possible for friday am…so stay tuned.

JEFF MASTERS WUNDERGROUND BLOG

Two major models–the ECMWF and NOGAPS–stubbornly refuse to develop Dean at all. These models are in great likelihood wrong. The GFS, UKMET, and new HWRF model all develop Dean into a hurricane that threatens the central and northern Lesser Antilles Islands Friday or Saturday. The big question is how strong the trough of low pressure predicted to pass north of TD 4 on Saturday will be. If the trough is strong enough, it may be able to pull TD 4 far enough north so that it misses the Lesser Antilles. Another big question is, will the trough spawn a cut-off upper-level low pressure system off the Southeast coast of the U.S.? If so, this feature could act to steer TD 4 on a more northerly track early next week, increasing the threat to New England and the mid-Atlantic coast. If not, a high pressure ridge is expected to build in, forcing TD 4 westward into Florida. It’s far too early to know which of these scenarios might occur. In any case, there is a significant possibility that TD 4 will hit the U.S. as a hurricane, and possibly a major hurricane. This could happen as early as Tuesday August 21. Of course, Dean could also stay farther south in the Caribbean, as forecast by the UKMET model, and eventually track into the Gulf of Mexico.

Intensity forecast

The 06Z run of new HWRF model indicates that Dean will not start intensifying until Wednesday afternoon. HWRF is then very aggressive intensifying the storm, bringing it to 956 mb (Category 3) on Saturday morning as it passes through the Lesser Antilles, then 920 mb (Category 4 or 5) Sunday morning near Puerto Rico. I’d be surprised to see Dean get that strong that fast, and HWRF is likely overdoing the intensification. The 06Z run of the GFDL model also shows a slow intensification starting Wednesday morning, followed by a steady increase to a Category 3 storm (956 mb) Sunday night as it passes through the northern Lesser Antilles. Given the upper-level high pressure system forecast to develop over Dean beginning Wednesday, combined with steadily increasing Sea Surface Temperatures and total oceanic heat content under the storm (Figure 1), intensification to a major Category 3 hurricane by Sunday is a reasonable forecast. -Jeff Masters @ Wunderground.com

JEFF MASTERS WUNDERGROUND BLOG