September is finally here and there’s still no sign of surf. While it may seem like there’s no relief in sight and it will never get good again, we all know someting has to give and its just a matter of time. The tropics should become more active and before you know it, we’ll even be talking nor’easters again. For now, we continue to watch and pray that the surf comes up for the NYBB Pro, this September 5-9th. There’s not much to speak about for the upcoming week, but there is a chance that a homegrown storm could develop off the SE coast this week - check out this marine surface pressure model that has it meandering off the east coast for the next 7 days.

“Several computer models develop a tropical depression off the South Carolina coast by Wednesday or Thursday, along an old frontal boundary. An area of disturbed weather has already formed here, and will bear watching over the next few days. You can track this using long range radar out of Jacksonville, Florida.

The NCEP says:
“MEANWHILE…A CURRENTLY NON-TROPICAL BUT HIGHLY CONVECTIVE LOW IS
NOW EVIDENT OFF THE SE US COAST. MODELS ARE QUITE DIVERSE WITH
THE FUTURE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. IT IS NOT MOVING MUCH
CURRENTLY AND SOME GUIDANCE FOLLOWS A SLOW TREND. HPC PROGS ALLOW
THIS LOW TO SLIP SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION OVER THE COMING WEEK
AS PER COORDINATION WITH NHC/TPC.”
Elsewhere in the tropics, tropical ave 98L is worth keeping an eye on, and could develop into a depression and begin a NW track ovder the next few days.

98L

“A tropical wave (98L) in the mid-Atlantic, halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, has the potential to develop into a tropical depression later this week. However, conditions are not as favorable today as they appeared yesterday, and there is a higher likelihood that wind shear and dry air will prevent this disturbance from developing. The system has a closed circulation and a small area of heavy thunderstorm activity on the west side of the center. Wind shear from strong upper-level winds from the east-southeast are preventing thunderstorm activity from building on the east side of the storm. The SHIPS model was forecasting a low shear environment would set up over the path of 98L by Tuesday, but now has reversed itself, calling for shear to remain 15-25 knots for the next five days. If the shear does remain that high, formation of a tropical depression is unlikely. However, 98L has a vigorous circulation, and it may be able to outlast the hostile wind shear until it finds a more favorable environment. Furthermore, other global models, such as the NOGAPS, are not forecasting such hostile wind shear conditions. I believe the SHIPS model shear forecast looks a little fishy, and that the NOGAPS model has the right idea. I’m expecting 98L to be a tropical depression later this week, perhaps as early as Wednesday.

98L moved southwestward for a period last night, but now has resumed its westward motion and slowed down to 10 mph. A strong trough of low pressure will pass north of 98L Tuesday and Wednesday, which could impart a more northwesterly motion to the storm. The GFDL and HWRF models have 98L moving to a position about 800 miles east of Puerto Rico by Thursday. A ridge of high pressure should build in after the trough passes, forcing 98L on a more westward track towards Puerto Rico. This is highly speculative, as both the HWRF and GFDL develop 98L into a 50 mph tropical storm by mid-week, and this is not likely to occur. I expect a weaker 98L may not “feel” the presence of the trough so strongly, and it may not get pulled as far north as the GFDL and HWRF are forecasting. In this case, 98L would stay farther south and move through the Lesser Antilles south of Puerto Rico late this week. None of the other computer models develop 98L.”